Africa's rice market is expected to see new changes in 2025
According to the latest industry analysis and market research, the African rice market will present a series of remarkable development trends by 2025.
According to the latest industry analysis and market research, the African rice market will present a series of remarkable development trends by 2025.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reports that African rice consumption is projected to reach 34.9 million tonnes of milled rice by 2025. However, current African rice production cannot satisfy the consumer demand in quantity and quality, with the gap filled by imports, predominantly of Asian origin, to approximately USD 5.5 billion annually.
Today, rice is an integral meal for several middle to high income households. It is a major dietary energy source for West Africa and the second most important source of calories in Africa.
In the 9-year span, amongst staple crops, rice consumption showed a significant increase of approximately 37%, comparatively higher than increases from other crops such as maize (20%), sorghum (21%) and cassava (32%).
In terms of imports, although some African countries are working hard to increase local rice production, the demand for imports will continue to exist. It is estimated that the total rice imports in Africa will reach about 22 million tons in 2025, a certain increase from the previous year. Among them, traditional rice importing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire will maintain a high level of rice imports due to population growth, changes in consumption habits and increased demand brought about by urban development. Take Côte d'Ivoire as an example. Although the country has been committed to achieving rice self-sufficiency, it is expected that it will still import about 1.5 million tons of rice in 2025, and the import value will exceed US$250 million.
From the perspective of import sources, Asian countries will continue to be the main supplier of rice to Africa. Major rice exporting countries such as Vietnam and Thailand will continue to increase their efforts to explore the African market. According to relevant forecasts, Vietnam's rice exports to Africa are expected to exceed 3 million tons in 2025, accounting for about 20% of its total rice exports; Thailand's rice exports to Africa will also maintain a steady growth, expected to reach about 2.5 million tons.
In terms of local production, African governments are paying more and more attention to agricultural development and increasing investment in rice planting. It is estimated that the local rice production in Africa will reach about 18 million tons in 2025, an increase of about 10% over 2024. For example, Senegal has continuously increased its rice production by promoting improved seeds and modern irrigation methods, and it is estimated that the country's rice production will reach 1.5 million tons in 2025. At the same time, some countries are also actively carrying out agricultural cooperation projects and introducing advanced planting technology and management experience, which will further promote the development of the local rice industry in Africa.
However, the development of the African rice market still faces some challenges. On the one hand, infrastructure construction lags behind and imperfections in warehousing, transportation and other links lead to greater rice losses and increased costs. On the other hand, climate change has an increasingly significant impact on agricultural production, and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods occur frequently, bringing greater uncertainty to rice production.
Overall, the African rice market will continue to move forward amid opportunities and challenges in 2025. The continued growth in import demand and the gradual increase in local production will jointly promote the development of the African rice market. At the same time, it also requires governments and the international community to work together, strengthen cooperation, and respond to challenges to ensure food security in Africa.
